Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Ascent Toronto
decks
20
(10.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
130
54-64-12
overall winrate
46.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.8%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
45.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1340
· median 1347
· range 1117–1648
(20 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1213
Q3 1415
1750
15% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 21.6% | 28 | 8-18-2 | 32.1% | 34.4% | 40.2% | -3.6 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 15 | 4-8-3 | 36.7% | 39.5% | 36.8% | -5.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.8% | 17 | 9-5-3 | 61.8% | 59.5% | 63.7% | +5.4 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 14 | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 41.7% | 35.9% | -5.8 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 44.6% | -2.7 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 44.2% | -2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 54.1% | +2.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 5 | 3-0-2 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 66.3% | +9.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.0% | -3.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.8% | +11.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.0% | -8.6 |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Water Silvie | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.8% | +3.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 20 from this event
The 20 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Cremation Ritual, Mnemonic Charm, Flame-Rune Swordsman. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Incarnate Majesty, Crux Sight.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Mnemonic Charm
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Flame-Rune Swordsman
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Spirit Blade: Ascension
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Mystic Purifier
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Devastating Blow
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Incarnate Majesty
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Crux Sight
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 2.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Spark Alight
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Gentle Respite
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Show all 64 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -0.57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.57 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 4 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Shard of Empowerment | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavasoul Tiger | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Thunderclap | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Diana, Cursebreaker | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Weaken Resistance | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Malignant Athame | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excoriate | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Savage Attack | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Tether in Flames | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Set Ablaze | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |