Water Crux MageTier 2
at Ascent Toronto
decks
4
(2.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27
8-15-4
overall winrate
37.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.4%
avg ELO -5.0 per match
expected value
41.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1275
· median 1275
· range 1203–1349
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1213
Q3 1415
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 21.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.8% | -13.6 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.2% | -16.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.5% | +8.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.0% | -18.2 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -4.7 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.8% | -7.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -6.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 34.8% | -14.6 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
