Water Penguin MillTier 2
at Ascent Toronto
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 21.6% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 54.7% | +2.2 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.9% | -2.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.8% | -5.2 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.9% | +19.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.3% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.2% | -18.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.5% | +13.8 |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.3% | +5.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 55 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 55 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tide Diviner | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scale of Souls | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Icebound Slam | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Meteor Strike | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Astroscope | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stream of Consciousness | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relic of Sunken Past | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dewdrop Hares | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allen, Beast Beckoner | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |