Water SilvieTier 3
at Ascent Toronto
decks
2
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
9-7-0
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.4%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
47.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1341
· median 1341
· range 1331–1352
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1213
Q3 1415
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 21.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.1% | -1.5 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.1% | -8.1 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.4% | +24.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.5 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Cats | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
