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SlimesTier 2

at Ascent Toronto

decks
22 (11.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
153 66-70-17
overall winrate
48.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.2% avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
47.4% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1295 · median 1303 · range 1075–1652 (22 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033 Q1 1213 Q3 1415 1750
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 32% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Razorgale 21.6% 37 8-26-3 25.7% 28.0% 31.6% -6.5
Water Ravishing Mill 10.8% 27 13-10-4 55.6% 54.8% 61.6% +4.3
Fire Crux Mage 10.3% 15 8-4-3 63.3% 60.5% 63.2% +5.3
Wind Allies 6.7% 6 3-3-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.5% -0.3
Fire Exia 5.7% 12 3-7-2 33.3% 37.5% 34.1% -6.8
Water Allies 4.6% 10 5-5-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.2% +0.1
Fire Aggro 4.1% 7 5-2-0 71.4% 63.6% 64.8% +7.5
Water Penguin Mill 3.1% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 55.1% +2.9
Fire Luxem Assassin 2.6% 4 3-0-1 87.5% 68.8% 74.5% +15.7
Wind Shadowstrike 2.6% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 56.8% +3.9
Water Crux Mage 2.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.8% +16.1
Wind Astra Cleric 2.1% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 39.6% -7.7
Water Tera Mage 1.5% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 41.7% -6.2
Wind Crux Mage 1.5% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 50.9% +0.6
Fire Arcane 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.4% +18.2
Fire Crux Hybrid 1.0% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 55.5% +5.3
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.0% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 51.0% +0.8
Water Beast 1.0% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 41.2% -6.6
Water Silvie 1.0% 0
Wind Slimes 1.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.6% +1.0
Wind Umbra Ranger 1.0% 0
Fire Crux Lorraine 0.5% 0
Fire Slimes 0.5% 0
Water Tera Kongming 0.5% 0
Wind Cats 0.5% 0
Wind Exia Jin 0.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 67.5% +16.8
Wind Tera Silvie 0.5% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.3% +2.0
Decklists · 22 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Gaia's Songbird, Hymn of Gaia's Grace, Kind Beastcaller. Losers more often ran: Scavenging Raccoon, Resolute Stand.

Played more by winners
Gaia's Songbird
Winning decks ran 2.8 copies on average, losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Hymn of Gaia's Grace
Winning decks ran 1.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Kind Beastcaller
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Scavenging Raccoon
Losing decks ran 2.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 3.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Scavenging Raccoon -1.00 0 4 0
Resolute Stand -0.75 0 3 1
Gaia's Songbird +0.75 3 0 1
Hymn of Gaia's Grace +0.75 3 0 0
Vampiric Slime -0.50 0 2 0
Ordinary Bear +0.50 2 0 0
Slime King +0.50 2 0 1
Beastbond Boots +0.50 2 0 2
Slime's Blessing -0.50 0 2 1
Safeguard Amulet -0.50 0 2 0
Orb of Sealing -0.25 0 1 0
Spellshield: Tera +0.25 1 0 0
Slime Eruption +0.25 1 0 3
Tariff Ring +0.25 1 0 0
Escape the Wreckage -0.25 0 1 3
Invective Instruction -0.25 0 1 0
Beastbond Ears +0.25 1 0 3
Kind Beastcaller +0.25 2 1 0
Verdant Slime +0.25 1 0 1
Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia -0.25 0 1 0
Meadowbloom Dryad +0.25 1 0 0
Bestial Frenzy -0.25 0 1 0
Turbo Charge +0.25 1 0 0
Tera Sight +0.25 1 0 0
Slimeshield +0.00 1 1 2
Lustrous Slime +0.00 1 1 2
Nullifying Lantern +0.00 1 1 2
Reprogram +0.00 1 1 0
Twilight Slime +0.00 1 1 1

JSON: /api/events/13122/archetypes/Slimes