Fire ExiaTier 2
at Ascent Toronto
decks
11
(5.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
78
30-42-6
overall winrate
42.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.2%
avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
45.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1343
· median 1385
· range 1107–1567
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1213
Q3 1415
1750
36% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
27% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 21.6% | 16 | 5-10-1 | 34.4% | 37.5% | 39.7% | -4.1 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 12 | 7-3-2 | 66.7% | 62.5% | 65.9% | +6.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.8% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 29.8% | -10.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 55.4% | +2.7 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 63.1% | +6.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 36.5% | -10.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 36.4% | -6.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.1% | -19.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.2% | +7.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.7% | -17.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.7% | -21.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Silvie | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.4% | +17.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.5% | -24.8 |
| Wind Cats | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.3% | -26.7 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
