Fire Crux LorraineTier 3
at Ascent Toronto
decks
1
(0.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
7-5-1
overall winrate
57.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.7%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
47.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1474
· median 1474
· range 1474–1474
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1213
Q3 1415
1750
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 21.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 31.9% | -11.6 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 74.2% | +18.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
