Wind AlliesTier 2
at Ascent Toronto
decks
13
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
100
45-46-9
overall winrate
49.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.2%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1346
· median 1367
· range 1033–1576
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1213
Q3 1415
1750
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
15% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 21.6% | 31 | 7-18-6 | 32.3% | 34.3% | 41.9% | -2.9 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.8% | 13 | 7-5-1 | 57.7% | 55.9% | 65.3% | +6.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 14 | 8-5-1 | 60.7% | 58.3% | 64.1% | +5.8 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 9 | 3-5-1 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 36.9% | -6.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -4.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.2% | +5.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.0% | +18.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.5% | -7.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.5 |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.9% | +8.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.2% | +25.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Zephyr, Reclaim, Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa. Losers more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble, Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar, Swift Recruit.
Zephyr
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Reclaim
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Eternal Magistrate
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Diablerie
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Swift Recruit
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Tariff Ring
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Mortal Ambition
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 62 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zephyr | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Ghostsight Glass | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manufacture Cell | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Fei, Spirited Steel | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backstep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |