Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Ascent Toronto
decks
5
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
39
14-22-3
overall winrate
39.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.1%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
45.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1240
· median 1259
· range 1073–1343
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1213
Q3 1415
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 21.6% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 43.0% | -3.4 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 25.5% | -15.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.8% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 59.1% | +4.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.2 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.8% | -10.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.2% | -14.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.9% | +4.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.1% | -23.8 |
