Water BeastTier 3
at Ascent Toronto
decks
2
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-7-0
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.5%
avg ELO -3.8 per match
expected value
42.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1268
· median 1268
· range 1160–1376
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1213
Q3 1415
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 21.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.8% | +6.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.0% | -18.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -11.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.1% | +22.5 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
