Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Ascent Taipei
decks
37
(6.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
503
261-211-31
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.7%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
53.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1368
· median 1353
· range 1117–1730
(37 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1201
Q3 1386
1736
41% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
8% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 176 | 89-79-8 | 52.8% | 52.8% | 51.6% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 34 | 13-17-4 | 44.1% | 44.7% | 48.2% | -0.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 23 | 12-11-0 | 52.2% | 51.9% | 45.3% | -1.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 39 | 19-20-0 | 48.7% | 48.8% | 47.9% | -0.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 25 | 13-11-1 | 54.0% | 53.4% | 52.8% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 29 | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 47.0% | 47.3% | -1.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 14 | 8-5-1 | 60.7% | 58.3% | 56.3% | +2.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 14 | 8-5-1 | 60.7% | 58.3% | 52.6% | +1.1 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 14 | 8-6-0 | 57.1% | 55.6% | 55.1% | +2.1 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 11 | 10-1-0 | 90.9% | 80.0% | 78.1% | +12.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 14 | 12-2-0 | 85.7% | 77.8% | 71.9% | +9.0 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 69.8% | +11.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 15 | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 47.4% | 47.5% | -1.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +1.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 45.8% | -2.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 75.2% | +14.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 13 | 9-3-1 | 73.1% | 67.6% | 60.3% | +4.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 35.6% | -7.7 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 6 | 1-2-3 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 43.2% | -3.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 8 | 5-2-1 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 56.4% | +3.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.4 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.3% | +6.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.8% | +15.2 |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.8% | +17.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.9% | +16.2 |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.2% | -20.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
Decklists · 37 from this event
The 37 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Turbo Charge, Stalwart Shieldmate, Spirit Blade: Ascension. Losers more often ran: Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Spirit Blade: Ensoul, Votive Runeblade.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.9.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Spirit Blade: Ascension
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Incapacitate
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit Blade: Ensoul
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Votive Runeblade
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Rending Flames
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Arondight, Azure Blade
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 65 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turbo Charge | +0.62 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.50 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.38 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.38 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.38 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 3 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chamber of Reflections | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Infusion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |