Horse and TaxesTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 87 | 47-37-3 | 55.7% | 55.5% | 60.2% | +3.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 18 | 8-7-3 | 52.8% | 52.3% | 55.8% | +2.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 17 | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 57.1% | 63.5% | +5.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 10 | 7-3-0 | 70.0% | 64.3% | 76.3% | +11.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 25 | 9-15-1 | 38.0% | 39.7% | 40.1% | -3.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 15 | 11-4-0 | 73.3% | 68.4% | 71.1% | +8.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 14 | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 41.7% | 47.4% | -1.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 28.7% | -10.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 38.2% | -5.7 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 55.8% | +2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.7% | +3.6 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +0.9 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -2.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.8% | -2.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 31.1% | -12.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.7% | -7.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.5% | -8.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 63.1% | +7.5 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.9% | -5.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +3.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 25.2% | -23.8 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.0% | +12.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.3 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.2 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.9% | +25.4 |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 22 from this event
The 22 public Horse and Taxes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Winbless Kiteshield | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |