Water AetherwingTier 3
at Ascent Taipei
decks
8
(1.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
97
42-49-6
overall winrate
46.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.5%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1269
· median 1256
· range 1078–1461
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1201
Q3 1386
1736
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
38% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 34 | 17-15-2 | 52.9% | 52.6% | 63.6% | +4.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.7% | -2.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 10 | 7-3-0 | 70.0% | 64.3% | 74.8% | +11.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.6% | +11.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 42.2% | -4.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 37.1% | -7.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 43.6% | -3.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 48.9% | -0.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.1% | +5.3 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.9% | -7.7 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.1% | -2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.2% | +7.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.2% | +25.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
