Water Umbra GuardianTier 3
at Ascent Taipei
decks
2
(0.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
5-14-0
overall winrate
26.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
25.6%
avg ELO -9.4 per match
expected value
39.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
37.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1179
· median 1179
· range 1134–1223
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1201
Q3 1386
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 29.5% | -9.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -15.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
