Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 62 | 29-30-3 | 49.2% | 49.2% | 50.9% | +0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 19 | 11-7-1 | 60.5% | 58.7% | 57.8% | +3.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 15 | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 47.4% | 42.4% | -3.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 11 | 5-4-2 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 48.8% | -0.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 54.2% | +2.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 12 | 7-4-1 | 62.5% | 59.4% | 56.7% | +2.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 68.9% | +12.1 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +2.5 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 65.4% | +8.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.3% | +6.2 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 22.7% | -17.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 33.4% | -12.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.1% | -7.4 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.6% | +5.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.1% | -23.9 |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.9% | +23.8 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 15 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Displace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nefarious Timepiece | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rally the Peasants | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |