Fire OblationTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
decks
8
(1.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
120
59-54-7
overall winrate
52.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.9%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1319
· median 1332
· range 905–1584
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1201
Q3 1386
1736
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 38 | 18-18-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 66.5% | +8.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 59.0% | +4.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 52.7% | +1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.4% | -4.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 21.5% | -18.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.9% | -4.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.7 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.0% | +1.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.3% | -10.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.2% | +3.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.4% | -5.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.1% | +7.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.9% | +5.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.3% | +9.9 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.6% | -7.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.3% | -8.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +2.0 |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
