Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1

at Ascent Taipei

decks

44 (7.6% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

561 265-261-35

overall winrate

50.4%

ELO-adjusted winrate

46.6% avg ELO -1.1 per match

expected value

49.3% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

46.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill · average

mean ELO 1342 · median 1304 · range 1088–1694 (44 pilots with an ELO rating)

807 Q1 1201 Q3 1386 1736

39% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 7% in the bottom.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile	48.1%	177	81-90-6	47.5%	47.5%	44.8%	-1.7
Wind Shadowstrike	9.9%	31	16-10-5	59.7%	58.6%	59.3%	+3.3
Fire Suzaku	8.5%	35	15-19-1	44.3%	44.9%	38.5%	-4.1
Wind Seiryuu	7.3%	28	12-13-3	48.2%	48.4%	42.5%	-2.7
Fire Crux Mage	7.1%	26	11-13-2	46.2%	46.7%	40.1%	-3.6
Fire Crux Lorraine	6.4%	39	20-19-0	51.3%	51.2%	52.1%	+0.7
Water Allies	4.3%	19	9-7-3	55.3%	54.3%	48.7%	-0.5
Horse and Taxes	3.8%	10	3-7-0	30.0%	35.7%	23.7%	-11.8
Wind Allies	3.8%	17	9-7-1	55.9%	54.8%	48.4%	-0.6
Fire Suited	3.6%	17	4-9-4	35.3%	38.1%	32.5%	-6.9
Fire Aggro	3.3%	19	4-14-1	23.7%	28.3%	28.8%	-8.2
Water Fractal	3.3%	13	6-6-1	50.0%	50.0%	44.0%	-2.5
Fire Exia	2.9%	18	10-8-0	55.6%	54.5%	53.9%	+1.5
Wind Wakeup Combo	2.8%	14	8-5-1	60.7%	58.3%	49.6%	-0.2
Wind Crux Lorraine	2.6%	10	5-5-0	50.0%	50.0%	49.0%	-0.4
Water Astra Ranger	2.2%	12	7-3-2	66.7%	62.5%	52.4%	+1.0
Fire Firebloom Burn	2.1%	12	8-4-0	66.7%	62.5%	56.6%	+2.8
Fire Umbra Guardian	1.9%	7	4-3-0	57.1%	54.5%	57.8%	+3.9
Water Genbu	1.7%	3	2-1-0	66.7%	57.1%	60.2%	+7.6
Fire Oblation	1.4%	7	3-4-0	42.9%	45.5%	47.3%	-1.3
Water Aetherwing	1.4%	2	0-1-1	25.0%	41.7%	38.4%	-11.2
Wind Astra Cleric	1.2%	8	5-1-2	75.0%	66.7%	66.8%	+8.1
Fire Crux Hybrid	0.7%	3	2-1-0	66.7%	57.1%	62.7%	+9.5
Slimes	0.7%	7	3-4-0	42.9%	45.5%	39.2%	-5.4
Water Tera Mage	0.7%	6	4-2-0	66.7%	60.0%	64.6%	+7.8
Fire Ravishing Mill	0.5%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	44.6%	-5.2
Fire Umbra Ranger	0.5%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	57.8%	+12.4
Water Ravishing Mill	0.5%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	48.6%	-1.4
Wind Razorgale	0.5%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Astra Cleric	0.3%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	38.7%	-18.1
Fire Neos	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Slimes	0.3%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	70.6%	+19.8
Water Neos	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Umbra Guardian	0.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	61.4%	+18.3
Wind Luxem Zander	0.3%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	70.4%	+19.6
Fire Aetherwing	0.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Polkhawk	0.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Seiryuu	0.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Beast	0.2%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	52.4%	+3.8
Water Slimes	0.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Umbra Ciel	0.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Arcane	0.2%	2	0-2-0	0.0%	33.3%	26.5%	-22.5
Wind Byakko	0.2%	2	1-0-1	75.0%	58.3%	66.7%	+16.0
Wind Crux Mage	0.2%	2	1-0-1	75.0%	58.3%	66.7%	+16.0
Wind Slice & Dice	0.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Tera Kongming	0.2%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	63.9%	+22.2
Wind Tera Silvie	0.2%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	51.9%	+3.0
Wind Umbra Tristan	0.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Vanitas	0.2%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	51.7%	+2.6

Decklists · 44 from this event

The 44 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 16 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 4 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Regal Inquisition, Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Portentous Tanggu. Losers more often ran: Blinding Orb, Grand Crusader's Ring, Fiery Interference.

↑ Played more by winners

Regal Inquisition

Winning decks ran 2.1 copies on average, losing decks 1.2.

Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in 7, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 9.

Blanche, Sheltering Saint

Winning decks ran 1.6 copies on average, losing decks 1.3.

Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in 7, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 6.

Portentous Tanggu

Winning decks ran 0.9 copies on average, losing decks 0.6.

Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 10.

Mercenary's Blade

Winning decks ran 0.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.1.

Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 9.

Quicksilver Grail

Winning decks ran 0.6 copies on average, losing decks 0.4.

Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 7.

Planted Explosive

Winning decks ran 1.4 copies on average, losing decks 1.1.

Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 4, both ran the same in 6.

↓ Played more by losers

Blinding Orb

Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.

Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in 5, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 9.

Grand Crusader's Ring

Losing decks ran 0.6 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.

Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in 6, the winner ran more in 3, both ran the same in 7.

Fiery Interference

Losing decks ran 0.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.1.

Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 11.

Uncover the Plot

Losing decks ran 2.7 copies on average, winning decks 2.6.

Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 5, both ran the same in 4.

Juggle Knives

Losing decks ran 2.1 copies on average, winning decks 1.6.

Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in 8, the winner ran more in 6, both ran the same in 2.

Resolute Stand

Losing decks ran 3.8 copies on average, winning decks 3.8.

Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 3, both ran the same in 9.

Show all 59 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)

Card	Edge	In winner	In loser	Same
Regal Inquisition	+0.44	7	0	8
Blanche, Sheltering Saint	+0.25	7	3	6
Portentous Tanggu	+0.25	5	1	9
Mercenary's Blade	+0.19	5	2	0
Blinding Orb	-0.19	2	5	6
Quicksilver Grail	+0.19	6	3	3
Grand Crusader's Ring	-0.19	3	6	4
Fiery Interference	-0.19	1	4	0
Sovereign Sanctuary	-0.19	0	3	0
Uncover the Plot	-0.12	5	7	4
Planted Explosive	+0.12	6	4	5
Vanish from Sight	+0.12	5	3	7
Nullifying Lantern	+0.12	4	2	4
Tariff Ring	-0.12	0	2	14
Juggle Knives	-0.12	6	8	1
Annul Spell	+0.12	2	0	0
Orb of Hubris	-0.12	0	2	0
Resolute Stand	-0.06	3	4	9
Reduce to Ash	-0.06	4	5	7
Luxera's Map	+0.06	4	3	7
Dungeon Guide	+0.06	1	0	15
Rile the Abyss	+0.06	1	0	15
Undying Dreams	+0.06	1	0	15
Heavenly Guide	-0.06	6	7	3
Liminal Guide	+0.06	1	0	15
Fast Cure	-0.06	5	6	4
Crystallized Destiny	+0.06	4	3	7
Safeguard Amulet	-0.06	2	3	11
Thieving Cut	+0.06	3	2	11
Nullifying Mirror	-0.06	3	4	4
Scry the Skies	+0.06	3	2	0
Caliburn of Silencing	-0.06	0	1	0
Expose Darkness	-0.06	0	1	0
Lurid Dreaming	-0.06	0	1	0
Uther, Illustrious King	-0.06	0	1	0
Reprogram	+0.06	4	3	1
Immolation Trap	-0.06	0	1	0
Unyielding Wraithguard	-0.06	1	2	0
Staggering Strike	+0.06	4	3	2
Art of War	-0.06	1	2	0
Gawain, Chivalrous Thief	-0.06	0	1	0
Under Fire	-0.06	0	1	0
Corhazi Courier	-0.06	0	1	0
Surreptitious Scheme	-0.06	0	1	0
Spirit of Fire	-0.06	0	1	0
Restorative Flame	-0.06	0	1	0
Orb of Regret	-0.06	0	1	0
Fragmented Spirit of Fire	+0.06	1	0	0
Flame Sweep	+0.06	1	0	0
Excalibur, Cleansing Light	+0.00	3	3	10
Evercurrent Raider	+0.00	6	6	1
Striking Illuminance	+0.00	2	2	12
Turbo Charge	+0.00	1	1	14
Exploit Vulnerability	+0.00	6	6	1
Spirit of Serene Fire	+0.00	1	1	14
Gentle Respite	+0.00	1	1	0
Tabula of Salvage	+0.00	1	1	0
Spellward Scepter	+0.00	1	1	0
Sadi, Blood Harvester	+0.00	2	2	1

JSON: /api/events/33786/archetypes/Fire Luxem Assassin