Water FractalTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 66 | 25-35-6 | 42.4% | 42.9% | 47.1% | -1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 20 | 12-7-1 | 62.5% | 60.4% | 61.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +1.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 13 | 6-6-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.0% | +2.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 34.1% | -8.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 10 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 45.0% | -2.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 30.2% | -11.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -8.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -0.9 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.7% | -11.4 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 35.8% | -9.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 64.0% | +8.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 6 | 1-1-4 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 57.1% | +4.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.6% | -10.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 28.0% | -16.4 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.0% | -1.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.8% | -7.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -4.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.7 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 19 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Humpty Dumpty, Fate's Fall | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Astarte, Celestial Dawn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Astroscope | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prima Materia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |