Water Astra RangerTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
decks
13
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
143
48-88-7
overall winrate
36.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.3%
avg ELO -3.5 per match
expected value
40.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1235
· median 1222
· range 1023–1576
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1201
Q3 1386
1736
23% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
38% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 48 | 17-29-2 | 37.5% | 38.5% | 42.8% | -2.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 10 | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 35.7% | 38.0% | -5.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 53.9% | +2.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 12 | 3-7-2 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 47.6% | -1.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.0% | -4.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 34.0% | -9.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 24.8% | -14.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.3% | +7.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.7% | -8.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.5% | -6.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.9% | -4.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 40.7% | -5.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 6 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 16.9% | -17.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.9% | -7.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 31.7% | -29.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.5% | -1.1 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.3% | +24.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +19.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.7% | +13.1 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Water Astra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Flash Grenade, Frozen Dismissal, Tactical Retreat. Losers more often ran: Vanishing Eclipse, Poised Occlusion.
Flash Grenade
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Frozen Dismissal
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Tactical Retreat
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Smoke Bombs
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Dissuading Aether
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Reposition
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Vanishing Eclipse
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Poised Occlusion
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Grenade | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Drown in Aether | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cometary Vantage | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Expulsion | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Boots | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Dissuading Aether | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Vanishing Eclipse | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Charge the Soul | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Radiant Vega | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Backstep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Reposition | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alacritous Huntress | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poised Occlusion | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Astra Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sleety Retreat | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Astroscope | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Meteoric Volley | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stellarion Shift | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |