Fire Umbra RangerTier 3
at Ascent Taipei
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.5% | +3.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 31.2% | -12.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.8% | -13.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.3% | +4.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.7% | -24.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.0% | -25.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.8% | -25.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 41 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demon's Aim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| False Step | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Penetrator Round | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Load Soul | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nightmare Coil | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ashwound Shot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |