Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
decks
12
(2.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
183
80-99-4
overall winrate
44.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.1%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
44.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1284
· median 1275
· range 1201–1386
(12 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1201
Q3 1386
1736
8% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
8% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 64 | 24-40-0 | 37.5% | 38.2% | 46.2% | -1.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 17 | 12-4-1 | 73.5% | 69.0% | 85.3% | +13.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 12 | 6-6-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 61.5% | +4.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 12 | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 43.4% | -2.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 24.9% | -13.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 48.4% | -0.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 13 | 3-9-1 | 26.9% | 32.4% | 39.7% | -4.3 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.0% | +6.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.5% | +8.0 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 9 | 3-5-1 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 40.0% | -4.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.0% | -10.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.3% | -15.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.9% | -4.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 66.6% | +12.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 6 | 6-0-0 | 100.0% | 80.0% | 83.1% | +17.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.3% | +6.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.1% | -5.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.3% | +26.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.0% | +25.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.2 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
