Water AlliesTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
decks
25
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
341
161-165-15
overall winrate
49.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1271
· median 1259
· range 1088–1469
(25 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1201
Q3 1386
1736
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
32% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 116 | 55-56-5 | 49.6% | 49.6% | 52.0% | +0.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 26 | 12-14-0 | 46.2% | 46.7% | 51.2% | +0.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 20 | 7-13-0 | 35.0% | 37.5% | 32.7% | -6.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 19 | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 45.7% | 51.3% | +0.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 19 | 3-15-1 | 18.4% | 23.9% | 18.1% | -12.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 16 | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 14 | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 41.7% | 43.7% | -2.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 71.3% | +10.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 8 | 7-1-0 | 87.5% | 75.0% | 80.9% | +14.8 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 55.0% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 12 | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 43.8% | 44.0% | -2.6 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 67.0% | +8.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 10 | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 60.7% | 65.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 9 | 7-2-0 | 77.8% | 69.2% | 68.4% | +8.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 12 | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 43.3% | -2.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.0% | -6.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -2.1 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 44.1% | -3.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 57.1% | +4.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 51.1% | +0.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.2 |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 25 from this event
The 25 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Snow Fairy, Grand Crusader's Ring, Blanche, Sheltering Saint. Losers more often ran: Frostbind, Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Inert Sword.
Snow Fairy
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Ciel, Loyal Valet
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Inert Sword
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
The Looking Glass
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 52 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expose Darkness | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lily, Marine Castellan | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Diffusive Block | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waterlogged Ranger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Castling Boon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vigil Rempart | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |