Fire SuitedTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 89 | 33-50-6 | 40.4% | 40.9% | 45.3% | -1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 18 | 9-7-2 | 55.6% | 54.5% | 59.5% | +3.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 14 | 6-8-0 | 42.9% | 44.4% | 41.5% | -3.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 17 | 9-4-4 | 64.7% | 61.9% | 67.5% | +6.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 10 | 2-7-1 | 25.0% | 32.1% | 31.1% | -8.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 18 | 6-10-2 | 38.9% | 40.9% | 42.6% | -2.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 11 | 1-10-0 | 9.1% | 20.0% | 21.9% | -12.3 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.0% | -2.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 44.2% | -2.8 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.2% | -18.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 37.4% | -6.7 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 64.2% | +9.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.8% | +5.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.2% | -14.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 34.6% | -8.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 66.1% | +10.3 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.9% | +2.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.8% | +3.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 43.7% | -4.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.1% | +4.6 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.0% | +22.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.2% | -15.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
Decklists · 21 from this event
The 21 public Fire Suited decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Five of Spades | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Two of Spades | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Straight Flare | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suited Trickery | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Verita, Queen of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Noire, Ace of Spades | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Four of Spades | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duchess, Six of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |