Water Ravishing MillTier 3
at Ascent Taipei
decks
3
(0.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
34
15-19-0
overall winrate
44.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.2%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1252
· median 1276
· range 1172–1308
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1201
Q3 1386
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 12 | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 43.8% | 52.4% | +1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -15.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.7% | -15.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.4% | -11.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.9% | -12.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.9% | +23.9 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.3% | +18.6 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 76.3% | +25.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.9% | +23.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
