Water Umbra CielTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
decks
1
(0.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
13-6-3
overall winrate
65.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
72.0%
avg ELO +8.3 per match
expected value
58.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
64.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1499
· median 1499
· range 1499–1499
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1201
Q3 1386
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 8 | 5-2-1 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 69.1% | +9.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 73.0% | +22.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.8% | -5.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.8% | +20.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.3% | -8.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.0% | -22.3 |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
