Water GenbuTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 40 | 17-20-3 | 46.2% | 46.6% | 47.4% | -0.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 11 | 5-4-2 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 55.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 44.4% | -2.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.8% | -7.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 66.6% | +8.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -6.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 6 | 2-1-3 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 56.8% | +3.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 55.9% | +3.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +1.7 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.4% | -4.2 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.5% | +11.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.0% | -14.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.7% | -6.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 28.2% | -13.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.4% | +7.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.1% | +22.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Castling Boon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Give Bath | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Expulsion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Death Essence Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |