← Ascent Akihabara

Fire Crux LorraineTier 1

at Ascent Akihabara

decks
106 (15.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
849 425-359-65
overall winrate
53.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.8% avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
53.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1327 · median 1305 · range 1075–1736 (106 pilots with an ELO rating)
945 Q1 1204 Q3 1418 1736
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 24% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Seiryuu 9.1% 95 45-40-10 52.6% 52.5% 49.3% -0.2
Fire Crux Mage 8.8% 87 45-36-6 55.2% 54.9% 59.7% +3.2
Wind Shadowstrike 6.6% 61 35-20-6 62.3% 61.5% 60.8% +3.7
Fire Suzaku 5.3% 68 43-22-3 65.4% 64.6% 61.1% +3.7
Water Genbu 4.4% 49 19-24-6 44.9% 45.3% 46.0% -1.4
Wind Astra Cleric 3.8% 29 9-16-4 37.9% 39.4% 42.6% -2.7
Fire Aggro 3.7% 36 21-14-1 59.7% 58.8% 62.9% +4.6
Water Aetherwing 3.7% 39 10-27-2 28.2% 30.2% 31.1% -6.7
Wind Razorgale 3.1% 24 18-4-2 79.2% 75.0% 77.0% +10.1
Wind Wakeup Combo 3.1% 33 14-16-3 47.0% 47.3% 51.1% +0.4
Fire Crux Merlin 2.9% 41 22-16-3 57.3% 56.7% 59.7% +3.4
Water Allies 2.8% 19 10-6-3 60.5% 58.7% 63.5% +5.2
Fire Oblation 2.2% 24 7-14-3 35.4% 37.5% 44.1% -2.2
Water Fractal 2.1% 21 11-9-1 54.8% 54.0% 62.1% +4.6
Wind Arcane 2.1% 15 7-8-0 46.7% 47.4% 51.9% +0.8
Fire Exia 1.8% 16 5-11-0 31.2% 35.0% 34.6% -6.2
Fire Umbra Guardian 1.8% 18 5-11-2 33.3% 36.4% 34.6% -6.0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.8% 14 7-6-1 53.6% 52.8% 50.3% +0.1
Wind Allies 1.6% 13 7-5-1 57.7% 55.9% 51.7% +0.7
Water Umbra Guardian 1.5% 17 8-7-2 52.9% 52.4% 47.6% -1.0
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.3% 9 7-2-0 77.8% 69.2% 75.3% +11.7
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.3% 13 5-8-0 38.5% 41.2% 48.2% -0.8
Fire Suited 0.9% 7 6-1-0 85.7% 72.7% 66.4% +8.3
Wind Luxem Zander 0.7% 10 5-5-0 50.0% 50.0% 54.2% +1.9
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.7% 11 4-7-0 36.4% 40.0% 40.9% -4.0
Fire Slimes 0.6% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 59.7% +6.2
Slimes 0.6% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 60.2% +6.5
Water Crux Mage 0.4% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 60.0% +7.5
Water Ravishing Mill 0.4% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 56.2% +4.0
Water Tera Mage 0.4% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 53.2% +2.4
Fire Arcane 0.3% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 58.3% +5.3
Fire Ravishing Mill 0.3% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 69.7% +14.7
Fire Umbra Ciel 0.3% 5 3-1-1 70.0% 61.1% 58.9% +5.1
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.3% 7 4-3-0 57.1% 54.5% 40.5% -4.8
Horse and Taxes 0.3% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 75.3% +16.2
Water Astra Cleric 0.3% 6 2-4-0 33.3% 40.0% 34.9% -8.1
Water Astra Ranger 0.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.8% -9.9
Water Neos 0.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 44.2% -5.6
Wind Ciel 0.3% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 76.8% +17.2
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.6% +17.0
Wind Slice & Dice 0.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 45.1% -4.7
Wind Vanitas 0.3% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 60.7% +6.8
Fire Byakko 0.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.4% -4.2
Fire Neos 0.1% 0 — — — — —
Fire Neos Tonoris 0.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.1% +12.6
Fire Shadowstrike 0.1% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 66.4% +12.2
Fire Tera Mage 0.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 45.6% -7.1
Water Beast 0.1% 0 — — — — —
Water Byakko 0.1% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 53.7% +3.6
Water Crux Lorraine 0.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 65.7% +25.1
Water Kongming 0.1% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 53.2% +2.4
Water Tera Cleric 0.1% 0 — — — — —
Water Tera Diao Chan 0.1% 0 — — — — —
Water Umbra Diana 0.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.0% +14.3
Wind Byakko 0.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.3% -12.3
Wind Crux Mage 0.1% 0 — — — — —
Wind Neos 0.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.0% +12.8
Wind Umbra Ciel 0.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 43.8% -5.9
Wind Umbra Tristan 0.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.6% +10.6
Wind Zander 0.1% 0 — — — — —
Decklists · 106 from this event

The 106 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 76 mirror matches (8 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 16 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Incapacitate, Varuck, Smoldering Spire, Under Fire. Losers more often ran: Honorable Vanguard, Staggering Strike, Devastating Blow.

↑ Played more by winners
Incapacitate
Incapacitate
Winning decks ran 1.1 copies on average, losing decks 0.8.
Of 76 mirrors: the winner ran more in 31, the loser ran more in 17, both ran the same in 28.
Varuck, Smoldering Spire
Varuck, Smoldering Spire
Winning decks ran 1.5 copies on average, losing decks 1.2.
Of 76 mirrors: the winner ran more in 27, the loser ran more in 15, both ran the same in 34.
Under Fire
Under Fire
Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.5.
Of 76 mirrors: the winner ran more in 24, the loser ran more in 13, both ran the same in 39.
Turbo Charge
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 1.1 copies on average, losing decks 0.9.
Of 76 mirrors: the winner ran more in 26, the loser ran more in 17, both ran the same in 33.
Smoke Out
Smoke Out
Winning decks ran 0.9 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 76 mirrors: the winner ran more in 27, the loser ran more in 20, both ran the same in 29.
Intensified Pyre
Intensified Pyre
Winning decks ran 0.6 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.
Of 76 mirrors: the winner ran more in 13, the loser ran more in 7, both ran the same in 56.
↓ Played more by losers
Honorable Vanguard
Honorable Vanguard
Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.
Of 76 mirrors: the loser ran more in 27, the winner ran more in 12, both ran the same in 37.
Staggering Strike
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 1.4 copies on average, winning decks 0.9.
Of 76 mirrors: the loser ran more in 33, the winner ran more in 19, both ran the same in 24.
Devastating Blow
Devastating Blow
Losing decks ran 2.1 copies on average, winning decks 1.8.
Of 76 mirrors: the loser ran more in 34, the winner ran more in 23, both ran the same in 19.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Fluffy Shopkeep
Losing decks ran 3.6 copies on average, winning decks 3.5.
Of 76 mirrors: the loser ran more in 26, the winner ran more in 15, both ran the same in 35.
Resolute Stand
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 3.1 copies on average, winning decks 2.9.
Of 76 mirrors: the loser ran more in 26, the winner ran more in 18, both ran the same in 32.
Varuckan Acolyte
Varuckan Acolyte
Losing decks ran 0.6 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.
Of 76 mirrors: the loser ran more in 18, the winner ran more in 10, both ran the same in 48.
Show all 75 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 55 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Honorable Vanguard -0.20 12 27 2
Incapacitate +0.18 31 17 8
Staggering Strike -0.18 19 33 4
Varuck, Smoldering Spire +0.16 27 15 28
Under Fire +0.14 24 13 7
Devastating Blow -0.14 23 34 17
Fluffy Shopkeep -0.14 15 26 35
Turbo Charge +0.12 26 17 32
Resolute Stand -0.11 18 26 32
Varuckan Acolyte -0.11 10 18 0
Smoke Out +0.09 27 20 7
Intensified Pyre +0.08 13 7 0
Sword of Shadows +0.07 19 14 25
Immolation Trap -0.07 23 28 22
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.07 25 20 13
Flamewreath Call -0.07 4 9 0
Drawn Blade -0.07 17 22 16
Cremation Ritual -0.05 17 21 38
Spirit Blade: Ascension -0.05 12 16 48
Surreptitious Scheme +0.05 24 20 5
Sword Saint's Vow +0.05 14 10 1
Crux Sight +0.05 20 16 6
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.05 4 0 0
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin +0.04 26 23 25
Stalwart Shieldmate +0.04 3 0 73
Crystallized Destiny +0.04 27 24 24
Reduce to Ash +0.04 25 22 27
Yuan Shao, Crown General -0.04 4 7 0
Flame-Rune Swordsman +0.04 10 7 2
Evercurrent Raider +0.04 8 5 0
Favorable Winds +0.04 3 0 0
Spirit Blade: Dispersion +0.04 8 5 0
Sword of Seeking -0.03 10 12 53
Backup Charger -0.03 1 3 72
Escape the Wreckage +0.03 26 24 15
Lorraine, Crux Knight -0.03 3 5 68
Undying Dreams -0.03 21 23 30
Rending Flames +0.03 25 23 28
Prismatic Edge -0.03 2 4 70
Tempered Steel +0.03 15 13 1
Hasty Messenger -0.03 13 15 5
Sable Remnant -0.03 0 2 0
Annul Spell -0.03 5 7 0
Lorraine, Spirit Ruler +0.03 5 3 0
Mystic Purifier +0.03 2 0 0
Embercrypt Burn +0.03 2 0 0
Nefarious Timepiece +0.03 2 0 0
Fracturize +0.01 2 1 0
Spark Alight +0.01 2 1 0
Regal Inquisition +0.01 26 25 1
Dungeon Guide +0.01 1 0 75
Flame Sweep -0.01 13 14 49
Nullifying Lantern +0.01 19 18 9
Nullifying Mirror -0.01 8 9 2
Hone by Fire +0.01 30 29 7
Blazing Throw -0.01 3 4 0
Tariff Ring +0.01 2 1 0
Heavenly Guide +0.01 22 21 3
Blazing Lunge -0.01 0 1 0
Fast Cure +0.01 2 1 0
Heated Vengeance -0.01 0 1 0
Fiery Interference -0.01 0 1 0
Duplicitous Replication -0.01 0 1 0
Coronation Ceremony -0.01 0 1 0
Library Witch -0.01 0 1 0
Chilling Touch -0.01 0 1 0
Three of Hearts +0.00 3 3 70
Reckoning's Wake +0.00 1 1 0
Votive Runeblade +0.00 1 1 0
Expel the Departed +0.00 1 1 0
Disenchant +0.00 2 2 0
Castling Boon +0.00 1 1 0
Demolition +0.00 1 1 0
Spurn to Ash +0.00 1 1 0
Spirit's Blessing +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/38740/archetypes/Fire Crux Lorraine