Wind SeiryuuTier 2
at Ascent Akihabara
decks
62
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
481
216-218-47
overall winrate
49.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.7%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1298
· median 1296
· range 971–1702
(62 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1204
Q3 1418
1736
21% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
27% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 95 | 40-45-10 | 47.4% | 47.5% | 49.5% | -0.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 41 | 23-14-4 | 61.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +4.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 33 | 9-19-5 | 34.8% | 36.5% | 39.6% | -3.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 23 | 13-9-1 | 58.7% | 57.4% | 60.9% | +4.1 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 28 | 5-19-4 | 25.0% | 28.1% | 31.0% | -7.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 23 | 9-13-1 | 41.3% | 42.6% | 44.1% | -2.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 20 | 11-7-2 | 60.0% | 58.3% | 61.4% | +4.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 21 | 7-10-4 | 42.9% | 44.0% | 42.7% | -2.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 14 | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 47.2% | 45.3% | -2.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 17 | 8-8-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 15 | 11-4-0 | 73.3% | 68.4% | 78.6% | +11.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 20 | 10-9-1 | 52.5% | 52.1% | 55.6% | +2.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 10 | 1-9-0 | 10.0% | 21.4% | 22.2% | -12.4 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 12 | 9-3-0 | 75.0% | 68.8% | 68.2% | +7.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.0% | -2.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 34.7% | -7.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 12 | 8-3-1 | 70.8% | 65.6% | 67.8% | +7.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 7 | 0-6-1 | 7.1% | 22.7% | 33.5% | -8.3 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 56.6% | +3.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 73.1% | +13.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 55.5% | +2.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 35.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.6% | +5.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.3% | +7.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +1.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.6% | -5.4 |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 64.4% | +8.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.7% | -8.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.1% | +27.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -6.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.6% | +8.6 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.5% | +2.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.8% | +28.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -20.9 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 30.5% | -31.3 |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.0% | +11.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -15.0 |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.9 |
Decklists · 62 from this event
The 62 public Wind Seiryuu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
-
GamingSiopao
-
Pulse
-
hoyee
-
Zabauu
-
Arcaelo
-
AsToria
-
NevaeHeaven
-
Hytek
-
yuukiyasai
-
ManKit
-
Kohlongtan
-
BEEMOleo
-
Conman
-
Frosted
-
TimB
-
Atayo
-
Apaul
-
rail
-
NeptuneI
-
marc
-
ThanatosR
-
KenOfNZ
-
Lsentinel
-
ShaoChien
-
Mushroom
-
Bayabayashi
-
Haimao
-
nagi7243
-
Happycat
-
Oswaldhk
-
tamia
-
Notchow0113
-
sura
-
joyyuan
-
CPang
-
Buggg
-
Penguin
-
Sen
-
Lecithium
-
Bento
-
Rickrage
-
Sze315
-
Oswald
-
CombatDragon
-
Hades
-
Biefall
-
AidenW
-
Konya
-
Lcoris
-
yukai
-
bread256
-
Remetic
-
Bujyu
-
HiddenGrotto
-
Layla
-
OV3RR1D3
-
Lee
-
BoaHu
-
tenjinwan
-
AZU
-
Arul
-
Hiro
Mirror Analysis
In 24 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 5 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Reclaim, Displace, Veiling Breeze. Losers more often ran: Smoke Bombs, Incapacitate, Longtail Grovesward.
Reclaim
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 24 mirrors: the winner ran more in
12, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 9.
Displace
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 24 mirrors: the winner ran more in
13, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 7.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 24 mirrors: the winner ran more in
11, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 9.
Nullifying Mirror
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 24 mirrors: the winner ran more in
10, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 10.
Harness Lightning
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.5.
Of 24 mirrors: the winner ran more in
9, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 11.
Innervate Agility
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 24 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 15.
Smoke Bombs
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 24 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 16.
Incapacitate
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 24 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 16.
Longtail Grovesward
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 24 mirrors: the loser ran more in
10, the winner ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 9.
Stifling Trap
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.9.
Of 24 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 17.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 24 mirrors: the loser ran more in
11, the winner ran more in 6,
both ran the same in 7.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 24 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 14.
Show all 78 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 58 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim | +0.38 | 12 | 3 | 3 | |
| Displace | +0.38 | 13 | 4 | 3 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.29 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.25 | 1 | 7 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.25 | 10 | 4 | 4 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.25 | 1 | 7 | 0 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | -0.21 | 5 | 10 | 7 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.21 | 1 | 6 | 17 | |
| Harness Lightning | +0.21 | 9 | 4 | 11 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.21 | 7 | 2 | 15 | |
| Candlelight Hourglass | +0.21 | 7 | 2 | 3 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.21 | 6 | 11 | 3 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.17 | 3 | 7 | 0 | |
| Winds of Destiny | +0.17 | 7 | 3 | 3 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.12 | 1 | 4 | 19 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.12 | 0 | 3 | 21 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | -0.12 | 7 | 10 | 4 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.12 | 5 | 8 | 4 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.12 | 5 | 8 | 11 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.12 | 10 | 7 | 4 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.12 | 6 | 9 | 1 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.12 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.12 | 6 | 3 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.08 | 5 | 3 | 16 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.08 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |
| Beseeched Fatestone | +0.08 | 2 | 0 | 22 | |
| Pride's Vanguard | -0.08 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Cure the Flesh | -0.08 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.08 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.08 | 4 | 6 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.08 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.08 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.04 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.04 | 8 | 9 | 6 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.04 | 9 | 8 | 6 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.04 | 3 | 2 | 19 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.04 | 3 | 2 | 19 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.04 | 2 | 1 | 21 | |
| Baby Green Slime | +0.04 | 1 | 0 | 23 | |
| Seiryuu's Command | +0.04 | 3 | 2 | 19 | |
| Tome of Sacred Lightning | +0.04 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.04 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | -0.04 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Charge the Soul | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.04 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.04 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Kiteshield | +0.04 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Light the Hunt | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Shenju | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primal Whip | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Heaven | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Menagerie Beastbonder | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fleetfoot Filly | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Illuminating Charge | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bell of the Chosen | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.04 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 1 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 13 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 12 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Byakko's Command | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 20 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kind Beastcaller | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glorious Presence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |