← Ascent Akihabara

Wind Astra ClericTier 2

at Ascent Akihabara

decks
26 (3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
215 95-97-23
overall winrate
49.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.9% avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
51.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1333 · median 1360 · range 1104–1633 (26 pilots with an ELO rating)
945 Q1 1204 Q3 1418 1736
23% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 19% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Lorraine 15.6% 29 16-9-4 62.1% 60.6% 57.4% +2.7
Wind Seiryuu 9.1% 23 13-9-1 58.7% 57.4% 55.9% +2.2
Fire Crux Mage 8.8% 20 11-7-2 60.0% 58.3% 57.5% +2.9
Wind Shadowstrike 6.6% 15 8-3-4 66.7% 63.2% 58.5% +3.4
Fire Suzaku 5.3% 10 3-5-2 40.0% 42.9% 35.3% -6.6
Water Genbu 4.4% 19 2-15-2 15.8% 21.7% 27.3% -8.8
Fire Aggro 3.7% 9 4-5-0 44.4% 46.2% 36.8% -6.1
Water Aetherwing 3.7% 7 2-4-1 35.7% 40.9% 42.0% -4.0
Wind Razorgale 3.1% 6 2-4-0 33.3% 40.0% 33.1% -9.0
Wind Wakeup Combo 3.1% 9 4-4-1 50.0% 50.0% 53.9% +1.8
Fire Crux Merlin 2.9% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 57.2% +3.9
Water Allies 2.8% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 56.1% +3.2
Fire Oblation 2.2% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 55.9% +3.1
Water Fractal 2.1% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 28.6% -20.6
Wind Arcane 2.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.5% -10.3
Fire Exia 1.8% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 50.7% +0.4
Fire Umbra Guardian 1.8% 5 1-4-0 20.0% 33.3% 30.4% -11.3
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.8% +9.3
Wind Allies 1.6% 6 1-4-1 25.0% 35.0% 41.4% -4.6
Water Umbra Guardian 1.5% 4 2-0-2 75.0% 62.5% 62.8% +8.2
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.3% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 54.5% +2.9
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.3% 0
Fire Suited 0.9% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 56.2% +4.6
Wind Luxem Zander 0.7% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.3% -0.6
Fire Slimes 0.6% 0
Slimes 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 33.9% -25.7
Water Crux Mage 0.4% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 41.2% -6.6
Water Ravishing Mill 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.8% +15.7
Water Tera Mage 0.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 43.3% -6.4
Fire Arcane 0.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.6% -5.4
Fire Ravishing Mill 0.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 31.4% -29.7
Fire Umbra Ciel 0.3% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.3% 0
Horse and Taxes 0.3% 0
Water Astra Cleric 0.3% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 33.6% -12.3
Water Astra Ranger 0.3% 0
Water Neos 0.3% 0
Wind Ciel 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.3% +13.4
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.3% 0
Wind Slice & Dice 0.3% 0
Wind Vanitas 0.3% 0
Fire Byakko 0.1% 0
Fire Neos 0.1% 0
Fire Neos Tonoris 0.1% 0
Fire Shadowstrike 0.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 55.3% +8.6
Fire Tera Mage 0.1% 0
Water Beast 0.1% 0
Water Byakko 0.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.6% +23.4
Water Crux Lorraine 0.1% 0
Water Kongming 0.1% 0
Water Tera Cleric 0.1% 0
Water Tera Diao Chan 0.1% 0
Water Umbra Diana 0.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 35.5% -23.2
Wind Byakko 0.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.2% -6.1
Wind Crux Mage 0.1% 0
Wind Neos 0.1% 0
Wind Umbra Ciel 0.1% 0
Wind Umbra Tristan 0.1% 0
Wind Zander 0.1% 0
Decklists · 26 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Tend the Land.

Played more by winners
Tend the Land
Winning decks ran 2.3 copies on average, losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers

No cards correlated with losing.

Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Scout the Land +0.67 2 0 1
Astral Seal -0.67 0 2 1
Necklace of Foresight -0.67 0 2 0
Nullifying Mirror -0.67 0 2 0
Horticounter +0.67 2 0 1
Ravaging Tempest +0.33 1 0 1
Grand Crusader's Ring -0.33 0 1 2
Spellshield: Astra -0.33 0 1 2
Dawn's Reversal -0.33 0 1 0
Beseech the Winds -0.33 0 1 2
Orb of Glitter +0.33 1 0 0
Astarte, Celestial Dawn -0.33 0 1 0
Tend the Land +0.33 2 1 0
Chalice of Blood +0.33 1 0 2
Crystallized Destiny -0.33 0 1 0
Fertile Grounds +0.33 1 0 2
Nascent Barrier +0.33 1 0 2
Heavenly Guide +0.33 1 0 0
Extortion Scheme -0.33 0 1 0
Coronation Ceremony -0.33 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.33 0 1 0
Ensnaring Fumes +0.33 1 0 0
Harvest Herbs -0.33 0 1 0
Chronowarp -0.33 0 1 0
Hide in Bush +0.33 1 0 0
Indolent Leisure -0.33 0 1 0
Art of War +0.33 1 0 0
Consumption Ring +0.33 1 0 0
Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter +0.33 1 0 0
The Elysian Astrolabe +0.33 1 0 0
Fluffy Shopkeep +0.33 1 0 0
Lunar Conduit -0.33 0 1 0
Regenerate +0.33 1 0 0
Resolute Stand +0.00 1 1 0
Mnemonic Charm +0.00 1 1 1
Stifling Trap +0.00 1 1 1
Gentle Respite +0.00 1 1 1
Arrow Trap +0.00 1 1 1
Stellaria Shower +0.00 1 1 0
Zephyr +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/38740/archetypes/Wind Astra Cleric