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Wind RazorgaleTier 2

at Ascent Akihabara

decks
21 (3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
169 75-83-11
overall winrate
47.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.1% avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
47.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1293 · median 1284 · range 1075–1549 (21 pilots with an ELO rating)
945 Q1 1204 Q3 1418 1736
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 19% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Lorraine 15.6% 24 4-18-2 20.8% 25.0% 23.0% -10.1
Wind Seiryuu 9.1% 14 7-6-1 53.6% 52.8% 54.7% +2.0
Fire Crux Mage 8.8% 15 5-9-1 36.7% 39.5% 46.6% -1.4
Wind Shadowstrike 6.6% 14 8-4-2 64.3% 61.1% 64.1% +5.8
Fire Suzaku 5.3% 7 5-2-0 71.4% 63.6% 61.9% +6.0
Water Genbu 4.4% 9 3-6-0 33.3% 38.5% 43.6% -3.0
Wind Astra Cleric 3.8% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 66.9% +9.0
Fire Aggro 3.7% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 54.3% +2.4
Water Aetherwing 3.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 52.8% +2.7
Wind Wakeup Combo 3.1% 7 5-1-1 78.6% 68.2% 70.2% +10.2
Fire Crux Merlin 2.9% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 45.1% -2.8
Water Allies 2.8% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 42.6% -5.5
Fire Oblation 2.2% 8 3-5-0 37.5% 41.7% 45.1% -2.3
Water Fractal 2.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 70.4% +19.6
Wind Arcane 2.1% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 66.9% +9.7
Fire Exia 1.8% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 49.2% -0.6
Fire Umbra Guardian 1.8% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 62.0% +7.7
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.8% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 41.5% -6.4
Wind Allies 1.6% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 68.1% +13.5
Water Umbra Guardian 1.5% 5 1-3-1 30.0% 38.9% 40.6% -5.4
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.9% -16.2
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.3% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 42.3% -7.4
Fire Suited 0.9% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 0.7% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% -16.1
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.7% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 25.0% -18.7
Fire Slimes 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.3% +16.4
Slimes 0.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.3% +15.6
Water Crux Mage 0.4% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 72.8% +21.9
Water Ravishing Mill 0.4% 0
Water Tera Mage 0.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 33.5% -26.5
Fire Arcane 0.3% 0
Fire Ravishing Mill 0.3% 0
Fire Umbra Ciel 0.3% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.3% +16.5
Horse and Taxes 0.3% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 74.1% +23.1
Water Astra Cleric 0.3% 0
Water Astra Ranger 0.3% 0
Water Neos 0.3% 0
Wind Ciel 0.3% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.3% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.9% +1.5
Wind Slice & Dice 0.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 54.9% +4.7
Wind Vanitas 0.3% 0
Fire Byakko 0.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.3% -20.3
Fire Neos 0.1% 0
Fire Neos Tonoris 0.1% 0
Fire Shadowstrike 0.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 55.0% +4.8
Fire Tera Mage 0.1% 0
Water Beast 0.1% 0
Water Byakko 0.1% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 0.1% 0
Water Kongming 0.1% 0
Water Tera Cleric 0.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.2% +3.6
Water Tera Diao Chan 0.1% 0
Water Umbra Diana 0.1% 0
Wind Byakko 0.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.1% -17.5
Wind Crux Mage 0.1% 0
Wind Neos 0.1% 0
Wind Umbra Ciel 0.1% 0
Wind Umbra Tristan 0.1% 0
Wind Zander 0.1% 0
Decklists · 21 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Losers more often ran: Scatter Essence.

Played more by winners

No cards correlated with winning.

Played more by losers
Scatter Essence
Losing decks ran 3.3 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Unbroken Mustang -0.67 0 2 1
Rictus Tiding -0.67 0 2 1
Cyclical Breeze -0.67 0 2 1
Verdigris Decree +0.67 2 0 0
Acolyte of Cultivation -0.67 0 2 1
Water Resonance Bauble +0.67 2 0 0
Favorable Winds +0.67 2 0 0
Ardent Cloudstriker +0.67 2 0 0
Aesan Protector -0.33 0 1 2
Scout the Land -0.33 0 1 2
Stifling Trap +0.33 1 0 2
Fan of Seven Debts -0.33 0 1 2
Tempest Downfall -0.33 0 1 2
Art of War +0.33 1 0 0
Ensnaring Fumes -0.33 0 1 2
Turbo Charge -0.33 0 1 2
Nullifying Mirror -0.33 0 1 2
Dream Fairy -0.33 0 1 2
Scatter Essence -0.33 1 2 0
Innervate Agility +0.33 1 0 2
Portentous Tanggu -0.33 0 1 1
Fire Resonance Bauble +0.33 1 0 1
Poisonous Breezecap +0.33 1 0 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.33 1 0 1
Nocturnal Blossom +0.33 1 0 0
Staggering Strike +0.33 1 0 0
Second Wind +0.33 1 0 0
Baby Green Slime +0.33 1 0 0
Usurp the Winds +0.33 1 0 0
Reclaim +0.00 1 1 1
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.00 1 1 1
Expeditious Opening +0.00 1 1 1
Eternal Magistrate +0.00 1 1 0
Zephyr +0.00 1 1 1
Smoke Bombs +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/38740/archetypes/Wind Razorgale