Horse and TaxesTier 3
at Ascent Akihabara
decks
2
(0.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
8-10-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.0%
avg ELO -6.2 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1319
· median 1319
· range 1313–1326
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1204
Q3 1418
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 24.7% | -16.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.2% | -28.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.4% | +15.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.4% | -25.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.4% | -26.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -4.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 25.9% | -23.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
