Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Ascent Akihabara
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 18 | 11-5-2 | 66.7% | 63.6% | 65.4% | +6.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 12 | 3-8-1 | 29.2% | 34.4% | 32.2% | -7.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 15 | 6-8-1 | 43.3% | 44.7% | 41.4% | -3.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.1% | -2.8 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 50.7% | +0.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 69.6% | +11.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.5% | -1.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 48.5% | -0.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 38.0% | -7.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 47.6% | -1.3 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.7% | +19.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.7% | -3.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 76.7% | +19.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.2% | +16.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.4% | +11.0 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vigil Rempart | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |