Fire SuitedTier 3
at Ascent Akihabara
decks
6
(0.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
41
15-25-1
overall winrate
37.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.3%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1244
· median 1212
· range 1121–1389
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1204
Q3 1418
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 7 | 1-6-0 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 33.6% | -8.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.4% | -5.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.4% | +26.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 68.3% | +29.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.8% | -4.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 53.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.6% | +6.4 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.7% | +10.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.8% | -10.7 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.5% | +24.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Suited decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
