Wind Crux LorraineTier 3
at Ascent Akihabara
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 14 | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 47.2% | 49.7% | -0.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 7 | 6-0-1 | 92.9% | 77.3% | 66.5% | +8.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 59.7% | +4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 12 | 2-6-4 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 34.5% | -6.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.0% | -15.4 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.7% | -13.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.8% | +2.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 38.4% | -7.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.5% | +6.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.8% | -22.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 35.7% | -10.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 38.1% | -8.9 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.0% | -8.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 20.4% | -18.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.0% | +17.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.7% | -6.0 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleansing Reunion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Combo Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Noble Dissolution | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |