Water AlliesTier 2
at Ascent Akihabara
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 19 | 6-10-3 | 39.5% | 41.3% | 36.5% | -5.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 20 | 9-10-1 | 47.5% | 47.9% | 44.4% | -2.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 13 | 6-7-0 | 46.2% | 47.1% | 54.6% | +1.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 12 | 2-6-4 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 42.9% | -3.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 8 | 6-1-1 | 81.2% | 70.8% | 68.1% | +8.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 7 | 2-2-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +0.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -3.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 52.3% | +1.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.5% | +6.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.7% | -4.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.4% | -8.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.2% | -2.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.3% | +17.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.3% | -19.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.3% | -5.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.1% | -19.1 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 39.6% | -6.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.0% | -14.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +3.5 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
Decklists · 19 from this event
The 19 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Castling Boon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fishing Accident | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waterlogged Ranger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dian Wei, Valorant Fury | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lily, Marine Castellan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guarded Dissipation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |