Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Ascent Akihabara
decks
36
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
290
131-146-13
overall winrate
47.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
46.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1262
· median 1233
· range 1024–1571
(36 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1204
Q3 1418
1736
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
31% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 68 | 22-43-3 | 34.6% | 35.4% | 37.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 23 | 9-13-1 | 41.3% | 42.6% | 39.1% | -4.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 22 | 9-13-0 | 40.9% | 42.3% | 42.7% | -2.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 13 | 3-9-1 | 26.9% | 32.4% | 33.1% | -7.1 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 9 | 7-2-0 | 77.8% | 69.2% | 72.3% | +10.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 10 | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 64.7% | +6.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 33.6% | -7.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 12 | 7-4-1 | 62.5% | 59.4% | 55.0% | +2.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 38.1% | -6.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 14 | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 60.8% | +5.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 8 | 1-6-1 | 18.8% | 29.2% | 31.9% | -8.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 10 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 45.1% | -2.2 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 10 | 8-2-0 | 80.0% | 71.4% | 73.2% | +10.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 67.3% | +10.0 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 67.6% | +11.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.9% | +2.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.0% | +15.4 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 45.5% | -2.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +3.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.0% | +3.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.3% | -2.3 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.6% | -26.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 68.5% | +29.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.9% | +10.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.1% | +1.6 |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.9% | +5.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.6% | +25.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 59.5% | +6.1 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.6% | +26.6 |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.5 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 36 from this event
The 36 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Sword of Seeking, Blazing Throw, Spark Alight. Losers more often ran: Coiled Fatestone, Staggering Strike, Surging Bolt.
Sword of Seeking
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Blazing Throw
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Spark Alight
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Suzaku's Command
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Embercrypt Burn
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Liminal Guide
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Coiled Fatestone
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Surging Bolt
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Smoke Out
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 62 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Demolition | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Dire Requiem | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |