Wind ArcaneTier 2
at Ascent Akihabara
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 15 | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 52.6% | 48.1% | -0.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.0% | +2.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 22.2% | -17.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 32.7% | -10.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.6% | +7.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 46.1% | -1.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.5% | -4.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 33.1% | -9.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 13.5% | -23.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 12.9% | -23.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.8% | +2.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 48.0% | -1.0 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 30.5% | -11.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.3% | -10.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.6% | -20.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.7% | +19.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.5 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.0 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 31.9% | -29.0 |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Wind Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mnemonic Charm | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arcane Elemental | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravaging Tempest | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Wind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Summon Gale | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Noble Dissolution | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arcanist's Prism | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |