Fire ExiaTier 2
at Ascent Akihabara
decks
12
(1.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
90
42-45-3
overall winrate
48.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.6%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
50.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1308
· median 1239
· range 1014–1685
(12 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1204
Q3 1418
1736
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
42% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 16 | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 65.0% | 65.4% | +6.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 65.3% | +7.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 47.5% | -1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 10 | 2-7-1 | 25.0% | 32.1% | 28.7% | -9.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 32.4% | -11.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 23.2% | -20.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 49.3% | -0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.8% | +0.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.5% | +9.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.9% | -1.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.7% | -17.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.5% | +10.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.5% | -12.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.0% | +25.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.2% | -8.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.8% | -27.6 |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 31.3% | -29.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 3 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 55 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 55 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exia Sight | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Under Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Solar Providence | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Annihilation | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crescent Glaive | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Steel Halberd | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Savage Sunder | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Enrage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |