← Ascent Akihabara

Fire Crux MageTier 1

at Ascent Akihabara

decks
60 (8.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
481 231-220-30
overall winrate
51.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.3% avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
51.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1322 · median 1339 · range 1069–1563 (60 pilots with an ELO rating)
945 Q1 1204 Q3 1418 1736
28% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 23% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Lorraine 15.6% 87 36-45-6 44.8% 45.1% 40.3% -3.2
Wind Seiryuu 9.1% 41 14-23-4 39.0% 40.0% 35.5% -5.1
Wind Shadowstrike 6.6% 26 16-8-2 65.4% 63.3% 55.1% +1.9
Fire Suzaku 5.3% 22 13-9-0 59.1% 57.7% 57.3% +2.8
Water Genbu 4.4% 32 18-11-3 60.9% 59.7% 60.7% +3.9
Wind Astra Cleric 3.8% 20 7-11-2 40.0% 41.7% 42.5% -2.9
Fire Aggro 3.7% 21 11-9-1 54.8% 54.0% 55.0% +1.9
Water Aetherwing 3.7% 20 13-7-0 65.0% 62.5% 59.2% +3.5
Wind Razorgale 3.1% 15 9-5-1 63.3% 60.5% 53.4% +1.4
Wind Wakeup Combo 3.1% 22 12-7-3 61.4% 59.6% 59.4% +3.5
Fire Crux Merlin 2.9% 13 7-4-2 61.5% 58.8% 66.4% +6.9
Water Allies 2.8% 13 7-6-0 53.8% 52.9% 45.4% -1.9
Fire Oblation 2.2% 14 6-8-0 42.9% 44.4% 48.0% -0.8
Water Fractal 2.1% 11 6-5-0 54.5% 53.3% 56.3% +2.8
Wind Arcane 2.1% 8 3-5-0 37.5% 41.7% 50.0% +0.0
Fire Exia 1.8% 11 5-6-0 45.5% 46.7% 52.5% +1.1
Fire Umbra Guardian 1.8% 15 8-6-1 56.7% 55.3% 58.6% +3.5
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.8% 8 3-5-0 37.5% 41.7% 40.3% -4.6
Wind Allies 1.6% 12 7-4-1 62.5% 59.4% 57.4% +3.2
Water Umbra Guardian 1.5% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 41.7% -5.3
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.3% 5 4-1-0 80.0% 66.7% 59.7% +5.6
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.3% 11 5-6-0 45.5% 46.7% 50.8% +0.4
Fire Suited 0.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.0% -2.9
Wind Luxem Zander 0.7% 7 2-4-1 35.7% 40.9% 52.0% +1.0
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.7% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 41.3% -6.5
Fire Slimes 0.6% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 42.2% -4.5
Slimes 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.1% -20.6
Water Crux Mage 0.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.8% +3.6
Water Ravishing Mill 0.4% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 35.1% -11.2
Water Tera Mage 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.5% +16.8
Fire Arcane 0.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.2% -7.7
Fire Ravishing Mill 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.6% +12.2
Fire Umbra Ciel 0.3% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 22.9% -20.2
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.3% 0 — — — — —
Horse and Taxes 0.3% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 33.6% -15.8
Water Astra Cleric 0.3% 0 — — — — —
Water Astra Ranger 0.3% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 46.7% -2.4
Water Neos 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 67.1% +27.3
Wind Ciel 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.6% +13.8
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.3% 0 — — — — —
Wind Slice & Dice 0.3% 0 — — — — —
Wind Vanitas 0.3% 0 — — — — —
Fire Byakko 0.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.5% +21.6
Fire Neos 0.1% 0 — — — — —
Fire Neos Tonoris 0.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.5% +3.4
Fire Shadowstrike 0.1% 0 — — — — —
Fire Tera Mage 0.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 39.8% -9.7
Water Beast 0.1% 0 — — — — —
Water Byakko 0.1% 0 — — — — —
Water Crux Lorraine 0.1% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 41.5% -5.4
Water Kongming 0.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 33.2% -26.8
Water Tera Cleric 0.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.1% -19.1
Water Tera Diao Chan 0.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.2% +19.5
Water Umbra Diana 0.1% 0 — — — — —
Wind Byakko 0.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 47.1% -4.6
Wind Crux Mage 0.1% 0 — — — — —
Wind Neos 0.1% 0 — — — — —
Wind Umbra Ciel 0.1% 0 — — — — —
Wind Umbra Tristan 0.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.7% +6.0
Wind Zander 0.1% 0 — — — — —
Decklists · 60 from this event

The 60 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 32 mirror matches (4 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 7 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Incarnate Majesty, Fluffy Shopkeep, Crux Sight. Losers more often ran: Hasty Messenger, Spirit Blade: Ascension, Reduce to Ash.

↑ Played more by winners
Incarnate Majesty
Incarnate Majesty
Winning decks ran 2.8 copies on average, losing decks 2.4.
Of 32 mirrors: the winner ran more in 13, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 16.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Fluffy Shopkeep
Winning decks ran 2.8 copies on average, losing decks 2.5.
Of 32 mirrors: the winner ran more in 13, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 16.
Crux Sight
Crux Sight
Winning decks ran 1.4 copies on average, losing decks 1.1.
Of 32 mirrors: the winner ran more in 12, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 17.
Sword of Shadows
Sword of Shadows
Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.6.
Of 32 mirrors: the winner ran more in 10, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 19.
Cremation Ritual
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.6 copies on average, losing decks 3.3.
Of 32 mirrors: the winner ran more in 11, the loser ran more in 5, both ran the same in 16.
Heavenly Guide
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 0.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.
Of 32 mirrors: the winner ran more in 9, the loser ran more in 4, both ran the same in 19.
↓ Played more by losers
Hasty Messenger
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 2.2 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.
Of 32 mirrors: the loser ran more in 16, the winner ran more in 6, both ran the same in 10.
Spirit Blade: Ascension
Spirit Blade: Ascension
Losing decks ran 3.3 copies on average, winning decks 3.0.
Of 32 mirrors: the loser ran more in 11, the winner ran more in 4, both ran the same in 17.
Reduce to Ash
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 0.9 copies on average, winning decks 0.7.
Of 32 mirrors: the loser ran more in 10, the winner ran more in 5, both ran the same in 17.
Resolute Stand
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.6 copies on average, winning decks 2.5.
Of 32 mirrors: the loser ran more in 13, the winner ran more in 9, both ran the same in 10.
Evercurrent Raider
Evercurrent Raider
Losing decks ran 0.4 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.
Of 32 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 3, both ran the same in 22.
Sudden Steel
Sudden Steel
Losing decks ran 1.6 copies on average, winning decks 1.5.
Of 32 mirrors: the loser ran more in 8, the winner ran more in 5, both ran the same in 19.
Show all 86 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 66 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Incarnate Majesty +0.31 13 3 16
Fluffy Shopkeep +0.31 13 3 16
Hasty Messenger -0.31 6 16 8
Crux Sight +0.28 12 3 13
Sword of Shadows +0.22 10 3 15
Spirit Blade: Ascension -0.22 4 11 17
Cremation Ritual +0.19 11 5 16
Tariff Ring -0.19 0 6 26
Surreptitious Scheme +0.16 5 0 0
Reduce to Ash -0.16 5 10 2
Heavenly Guide +0.16 9 4 1
Resolute Stand -0.12 9 13 10
Under Fire +0.12 6 2 0
Immolation Trap +0.12 10 6 0
Potion Infusion: Seal +0.12 7 3 0
Evercurrent Raider -0.12 3 7 5
Sudden Steel -0.09 5 8 18
Crystallized Destiny -0.09 2 5 25
Flame Sweep +0.09 6 3 0
Honorable Vanguard -0.09 5 8 0
Reclaim -0.09 0 3 0
Morgan, Soul Guide +0.09 4 1 0
Three of Hearts +0.06 4 2 26
Inert Sword +0.06 2 0 30
Stalwart Shieldmate -0.06 4 6 22
Disintegrate +0.06 4 2 0
Fast Cure -0.06 9 11 3
Escape the Wreckage +0.06 8 6 0
Library Witch +0.06 7 5 2
Undying Dreams -0.06 11 13 7
Flame-Rune Swordsman +0.06 12 10 2
Ignite the Soul +0.06 4 2 1
Prismatic Edge -0.06 1 3 28
Consumption Ring -0.06 1 3 0
Smoke Out +0.06 7 5 4
Sword of Seeking -0.06 7 9 4
Safeguard Amulet -0.06 7 9 10
Varuck, Smoldering Spire -0.06 1 3 0
Freezing Steel +0.06 5 3 0
Reprogram +0.06 5 3 0
Favorable Winds -0.06 1 3 0
Flamewreath Call -0.06 1 3 0
Expel the Departed -0.06 2 4 0
Nascent Blast +0.06 2 0 0
Annul Spell -0.06 0 2 0
Turbo Charge -0.03 2 3 26
Incapacitate -0.03 2 3 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior +0.03 1 0 31
Chilling Touch -0.03 1 2 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.03 2 3 27
Nullifying Lantern -0.03 5 6 17
Varuckan Acolyte +0.03 9 8 1
Rending Flames +0.03 3 2 0
Regal Inquisition +0.03 11 10 5
Nimue, Cursed Touch +0.03 8 7 0
Devastating Blow +0.03 2 1 0
Four of Spades +0.03 2 1 0
Nullifying Mirror +0.03 7 6 3
Mnemonic Charm -0.03 0 1 0
Rising Tides -0.03 0 1 0
Staggering Strike -0.03 1 2 0
Sable Remnant -0.03 0 1 0
Sovereign Sanctuary -0.03 1 2 0
Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple -0.03 0 1 0
Intensified Pyre -0.03 0 1 0
Tome of Sorcery +0.03 2 1 0
Fabled Emerald Fatestone -0.03 0 1 0
Censer of Restful Peace -0.03 0 1 0
Deflecting Edge +0.03 3 2 0
Coronation Ceremony -0.03 1 2 0
Bandage Wound -0.03 1 2 0
Disenchant -0.03 1 2 0
Smoke Bombs -0.03 0 1 0
Galed Erasure -0.03 0 1 0
Fragmented Spirit of Fire -0.03 0 1 0
Unyielding Wraithguard -0.03 0 1 0
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin +0.00 8 8 15
Reckoning's Wake +0.00 1 1 0
Hone by Fire +0.00 1 1 0
Drawn Blade +0.00 1 1 30
Duplicitous Replication +0.00 3 3 0
Mystic Purifier +0.00 5 5 0
Scatter Essence +0.00 1 1 0
Castling Boon +0.00 1 1 0
Yuan Shao, Crown General +0.00 1 1 0
Thunderclap +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/38740/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage