Fire Firebloom BurnTier 3
at Ascent Akihabara
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 9 | 2-7-0 | 22.2% | 30.8% | 24.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 32.8% | -9.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 40.3% | -5.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 75.6% | +14.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.0% | -3.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 45.5% | -2.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.5% | -5.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.0% | -6.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 63.3% | +9.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.8% | +8.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.0% | -17.3 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.7% | +15.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ashwick Cremator | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Demolition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravenous Pyre | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sigil of Budding Embers | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wonderland's Reign | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Maiden of Shimmering Air | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lucenia's Reign | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |