Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Ascent Akihabara
decks
45
(6.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
341
132-167-42
overall winrate
44.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.7%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1284
· median 1256
· range 1062–1597
(45 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1204
Q3 1418
1736
18% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 61 | 20-35-6 | 37.7% | 38.5% | 39.2% | -3.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 33 | 19-9-5 | 65.2% | 63.5% | 60.4% | +3.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 26 | 8-16-2 | 34.6% | 36.7% | 41.0% | -3.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 13 | 9-3-1 | 73.1% | 67.6% | 66.9% | +7.1 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 10 | 0-10-0 | 0.0% | 14.3% | 17.7% | -14.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 15 | 3-8-4 | 33.3% | 36.8% | 41.5% | -3.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 12 | 3-9-0 | 25.0% | 31.2% | 28.9% | -9.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 18 | 12-5-1 | 69.4% | 65.9% | 65.7% | +6.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 14 | 4-8-2 | 35.7% | 38.9% | 35.9% | -5.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 34.1% | -7.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 12 | 2-10-0 | 16.7% | 25.0% | 28.0% | -9.4 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 12 | 6-2-4 | 66.7% | 62.5% | 57.1% | +3.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 12 | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 59.5% | +4.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 28.2% | -13.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 77.8% | +17.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 10 | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 67.9% | 71.3% | +9.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 12 | 6-2-4 | 66.7% | 62.5% | 65.5% | +6.6 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 24.4% | -14.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 38.0% | -5.8 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.1% | -6.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 19.8% | -17.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.7% | +4.9 |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 35.4% | -14.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.3% | -8.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.1% | -10.5 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +5.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 64.1% | +10.5 |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.6% | -18.6 |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
Decklists · 45 from this event
The 45 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
-
Mike0615
-
Levin
-
Asuna
-
Kaoru
-
Arod
-
NiEN
-
CtkX
-
Schwarzer
-
Justinljw
-
barbarian
-
clasuke
-
Taikun
-
SpIn
-
WalterTC
-
CasperW
-
DOGE
-
UBVOLA
-
FREECARDSPLEASE
-
Jpo
-
homan
-
scarlet710
-
Anjuhro
-
KEI1016
-
Leotgtg
-
Cheng
-
Tanya
-
Jie
-
Cleric123
-
Karasuba
-
Joven
-
Rty
-
magdami
-
Kee
-
Pierrot
-
Joel
-
Pengli
-
bayashi
-
Antix
-
hiroshi5
-
JackyGA
-
hishou
-
DONTBOY
-
Subaru486
-
Veedram
-
hanage
Mirror Analysis
In 12 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Innervate Agility, Heavenly Guide, Cleansing Reunion. Losers more often ran: Nullifying Lantern, Zephyr, Blanche, Sheltering Saint.
Innervate Agility
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Cleansing Reunion
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Cry for Help
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Ensnaring Fumes
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Blinding Orb
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Zephyr
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Shadowstrike
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 9.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 9.
Tempest Downfall
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Innervate Agility | +0.50 | 7 | 1 | 4 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.33 | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 4 | 6 | |
| Zephyr | -0.25 | 2 | 5 | 5 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.17 | 3 | 5 | 4 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.17 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.17 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 9 | |
| Shadowstrike | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 9 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 11 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 3 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 5 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 9 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 4 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 9 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Winbless Lookout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 10 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 10 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Displace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sharpen Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |