Fire AggroTier 2
at Ascent Singapore
decks
16
(5.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
122
58-61-3
overall winrate
48.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.6%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
47.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1299
· median 1260
· range 1099–1668
(16 pilots with an ELO rating)
1003
Q1 1211
Q3 1400
1730
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 28.8% | 31 | 12-18-1 | 40.3% | 41.4% | 45.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 15 | 6-9-0 | 40.0% | 42.1% | 43.8% | -2.5 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 15 | 9-6-0 | 60.0% | 57.9% | 61.7% | +4.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 9 | 3-5-1 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 59.8% | +4.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.8% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 46.4% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 71.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 12 | 6-6-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.8% | +4.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.5% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 60.5% | +4.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +1.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 76.0% | +24.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.6% | -16.7 |
| Water Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
Decklists · 16 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Backup Charger, Firetuned Automaton, Lurking Assailant. Losers more often ran: Water Resonance Bauble, Vermilion Decree, Under Fire.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Firetuned Automaton
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Lurking Assailant
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Blitz Mage
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Water Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Vermilion Decree
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 3.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Under Fire
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Surging Bolt
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Flame Sweep
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 91 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 71 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 2 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Under Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Cemetery Sentry | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Astral Zenith | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -0.33 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.33 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Powered Sentinel | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.33 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Channeling Stone | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crusader of Aesa | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kingdom Informant | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Firetuned Automaton | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blitz Mage | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smashing Force | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scorching Trap | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Embersong | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Erupting Rhapsody | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Charge | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Discordia, Harp of Malice | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |