Fire NeosTier 3
at Ascent Singapore
decks
1
(0.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
1-5-1
overall winrate
21.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
27.5%
avg ELO -11.3 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1027
· median 1027
· range 1027–1027
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1003
Q1 1211
Q3 1400
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 28.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.5 |
| Water Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
