Fire EruptingTier 2
at Ascent Singapore
decks
7
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
60
27-33-0
overall winrate
45.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.5%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
47.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1293
· median 1257
· range 1113–1519
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1003
Q1 1211
Q3 1400
1730
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
29% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 28.8% | 19 | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 43.5% | 47.0% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.7% | +11.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -16.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 39.5% | -4.8 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.1% | -5.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 77.0% | +25.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Water Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
