Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Ascent Singapore
decks
2
(0.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
10-8-5
overall winrate
54.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.8%
avg ELO -2.7 per match
expected value
52.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1384
· median 1384
· range 1315–1452
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1003
Q1 1211
Q3 1400
1730
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 28.8% | 6 | 2-1-3 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 34.9% | -8.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +1.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 48.5% | -1.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.8% | +8.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.9 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.7% | -7.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.0% | -27.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
