Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Ascent Singapore
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 28.8% | 15 | 6-8-1 | 43.3% | 44.7% | 45.8% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 67.1% | +9.9 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 7 | 1-6-0 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 27.6% | -11.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.5% | -7.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.9% | -15.4 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 23.0% | -25.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.2% | +17.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.0% | +27.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +3.4 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erratic Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arcane Disposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer into Mana | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm Tyrant's Eye | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Power Overwhelming | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |