Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Ascent Singapore
decks
19
(6.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
168
79-67-22
overall winrate
53.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.0%
avg ELO +0.0 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1361
· median 1324
· range 1062–1685
(19 pilots with an ELO rating)
1003
Q1 1211
Q3 1400
1730
37% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
21% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 28.8% | 58 | 25-28-5 | 47.4% | 47.6% | 41.9% | -2.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 16 | 3-9-4 | 31.2% | 35.0% | 31.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 13 | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 58.8% | 58.6% | +3.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 13 | 7-5-1 | 57.7% | 55.9% | 58.2% | +3.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.0% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 64.8% | +7.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 53.6% | +1.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 13 | 6-3-4 | 61.5% | 58.8% | 57.6% | +3.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.5% | +7.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 9 | 4-3-2 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 54.3% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.6% | +20.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Water Neos | 1.1% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.0% | +2.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 32.0% | -17.3 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.3% | -7.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.2% | +19.4 |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.4 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 19 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Frostbind, Snow Fairy, Freezing Steel. Losers more often ran: Song of Frost, Diffusive Block, Vaporjet Shieldbearer.
Frostbind
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Snow Fairy
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Freezing Steel
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Primordial Ritual
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Diffusive Block
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Vaporjet Shieldbearer
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Seasprite Diver
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Reprogram
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Diffusive Block | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Reprogram | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cloak of Stillwater | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Powered Defender | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |