Water AlliesTier 1
at Ascent Singapore
decks
15
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
145
78-51-16
overall winrate
59.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.7%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
58.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1330
· median 1315
· range 1200–1689
(15 pilots with an ELO rating)
1003
Q1 1211
Q3 1400
1730
13% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
7% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 28.8% | 43 | 26-13-4 | 65.1% | 63.8% | 59.0% | +3.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 16 | 12-4-0 | 75.0% | 70.0% | 64.1% | +5.7 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 11 | 6-2-3 | 68.2% | 63.3% | 60.8% | +4.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 13 | 4-4-5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +1.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.8% | 13 | 3-6-4 | 38.5% | 41.2% | 42.4% | -3.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.0% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 55.8% | +2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 12 | 6-6-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.2% | -4.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -5.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.9% | +5.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.9% | -6.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +14.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.8% | -7.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.0% | -25.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.2% | +10.6 |
| Water Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.3% | +7.7 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.6 |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Water Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
