Fire Crux MerlinTier 3
at Ascent Singapore
decks
5
(1.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
46
20-24-2
overall winrate
45.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.2%
avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
46.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1289
· median 1278
· range 1086–1482
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1003
Q1 1211
Q3 1400
1730
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
40% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 28.8% | 15 | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 52.6% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 54.5% | +2.3 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.0% | -18.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 57.4% | +5.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.4% | -20.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.0% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 28.6% | -13.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -1.6 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.7 |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.1% | +19.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
