Wind AlliesTier 2
at Ascent Singapore
decks
23
(8.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
177
74-87-16
overall winrate
46.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.8%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
47.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1326
· median 1366
· range 1003–1624
(23 pilots with an ELO rating)
1003
Q1 1211
Q3 1400
1730
35% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
22% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 28.8% | 49 | 24-19-6 | 55.1% | 54.7% | 53.7% | +1.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 20 | 5-13-2 | 30.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -5.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 16 | 12-3-1 | 78.1% | 72.5% | 72.3% | +8.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.8% | 13 | 5-8-0 | 38.5% | 41.2% | 41.4% | -3.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.0% | 11 | 0-11-0 | 0.0% | 13.3% | 13.1% | -16.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 15 | 6-9-0 | 40.0% | 42.1% | 38.3% | -4.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 11 | 2-6-3 | 31.8% | 36.7% | 39.2% | -4.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 72.4% | +11.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 35.3% | -11.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.9% | -6.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.0% | +18.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 24.3% | -16.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 47.8% | -1.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 52.2% | +1.1 |
| Water Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +15.5 |
| Water Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.2% | -5.5 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 23 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Windrider Vanguard, Aesan Protector, Attune with the Winds. Losers more often ran: Viridian Protective Trinket, Cleansing Reunion, Manufacture Cell.
Windrider Vanguard
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Attune with the Winds
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Safeguard Amulet
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Vigilant Sentry
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Cleansing Reunion
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Manufacture Cell
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Rose, Eternal Paragon
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Armored Valkyrie
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Second Wind
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 76 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 56 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.86 | 6 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.57 | 0 | 4 | 2 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Attune with the Winds | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Manufacture Cell | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Second Wind | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Mark of Fervor | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Enchaining Gale | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windwalker Boots | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extortion Scheme | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surveil the Winds | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Channeling Stone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |